NFL Mid-Season Review

It is time for our monthly overview of the NFL. As with the month one check-in, teams seem committed to confounding and keeping us from making any broad assessments about which are the best.

Before I get to my breakdown, some thoughts about the Colts making, for the first time in years, a move at the trade deadline. And a huge one at that, sending two first round picks and Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for Sauce Gardner.[1]

There were plenty of rumors about the Colts jumping into the market, with the Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson the reach goal and any number of solid if unspectacular DBs the more realistic targets. And then they went out and shocked everyone by landing Gardner, who no one expected to be on the market after signing a contract extension over the summer. Gardner’s play has fallen off over the past two years, but some of that could be simply because of playing for the Jets. He gives the Colts a potential lockdown corner that perfectly fits their defensive scheme. He improves the weakest part of the team. With several injured DBs hopefully working their way back onto the field, that weakness could easily become a strength over the back half of the schedule, which will be tougher than the front half.

The move comes with risk. Maybe Gardner can’t get back to his previous level of play. Maybe Daniel Jones turns into a pumpkin and it doesn’t matter what the defense does. Maybe the Colts are snake-bit by injuries the rest of this year and next, and those two first round picks end up being top 10 selections for the Jets. I do like them making a big move that not only helps this year’s team, but involves a player under contract into the future as well.

Of course, I was excited when the Colts traded for Trent Richardson in 2013 and he ended up being one of the biggest busts in NFL history.

So we’ll see?

(Listening to a podcast this morning and reading a couple articles, a lot of national folks do not like this trade for the Colts. The key is giving up two first round draft picks when the team’s success is tethered to Jones remaining effective and healthy. They could well be looking to draft a QB again in 2027, and the Jets now own that pick. Jones must keep playing well and re-sign with the Colts this offseason and continue to play well over the course of that new contract for this deal to be worth it, regardless of how Gardner plays. In other words, 😬)

The Colts, Broncos, and Patriots are tied for the best record in the league. I don’t think anyone but the biggest homers would suggest those three teams are Super Bowl favorites.

Just behind them are the Bills and Eagles, also with two losses but one fewer win because of bye weeks. I think these remain best bets for the #1 seed in each conference, but each team’s losses have been concerning enough to cause confidence to waiver.

The NFC North is better than I expected it to be, with the four teams currently separated by one win. My preseason Super Bowl champion was Green Bay, based on my expectation they would get better over the course of the season. Well, when they lose they lose really stupidly, and they have a couple major injuries to contend with. Worse, their coach, Matt LeFleur, seems to have lost his courage, consistently calling incredibly safe and boring games. Maybe he doesn’t trust Jordan Love or his offensive line, but it doesn’t seem to be working: they just scored 13 points in a loss to Carolina! Take some risks and unleash your offense, dude!

The Chiefs and Ravens are still trying to climb out of early season holes, both teams getting healthier and more complete each week. There’s basically no margin for error for the Ravens, the Chiefs have a little more room to work with but can’t mess around too much over the next two months no matter what their playoff pedigree is.

So here we are, two months into the season, and there’s not been any obvious separation at the top. Every team that has six or seven wins has at least one really dumb loss. Every team expected to contend has at least one huge injury that is holding them back, and/or costing them a significant player for the rest of the season.

If I made stupid preseason picks, it seems like I should make equally stupid midseason picks. I’ll just pick the playoff teams for now, in no particular order.

AFC

New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis
Denver
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Baltimore

It seems like the Chargers have too many injuries and too much Charger-ness to hang on to their spot, the Ravens will do their normal win 6–7–8 straight thing, and Pittsburgh will do just enough to hang on to a playoff spot.

NFC

Eagles
Packers
Buccaneers
Rams
Lions
Seahawks
49ers

I’ll too lazy to pull up all the schedules, so will take a pure guess that the North beats each other up more than the West, thus the Seahawks/Niners get in over Vikings/Bears.

We’ll touch base in four weeks to see how dumb I was on November 5.