Final Picks

As expected, I’ve changed some of my Final Four picks. After the initial run, I realized I can’t have three Big 10 schools coming to Indy.

Every time I’ve watched Illinois this year, their games have been awesome. The most potent offense in the country is a lot of fun to watch. Their band of Euros and an unsung PG from Kansas score almost effortlessly. Their general Euro-ness does cause some occasional bad defense, though. And if they were as good as I thought, would they only be a 3 seed?

So I swapped them for Florida, knowing making that title defense run is an absolute bear even for good teams.

On the opposite side of the bracket, I keep going back-and-forth on Iowa State and Michigan. Michigan was, arguably, the best team in the country until they lost reserve guard LJ Cason last month. His absence definitely knocks the Wolverines down a notch. They’re still very good but lack a stone-cold scorer off the bench.

As for Iowa State, they are hella good, as the California kids would say. Yet the Iowa State-ishness of them is a mental block for someone who has watched really good Cyclone teams flame out in March for decades. They had a couple bad weeks, which will happen in the Big 12, but otherwise rolled through the season. They played Arizona, which has some similarities to Michigan, twice, getting hammered in Tucson and losing that epic game last week in the Big 12 tournament at the buzzer.

The potential Elite 8 game is in Chicago. Iowa State fans travel great, and are close. There are a million Michigan alums in Chicago. I’m not sure either team would have a clear advantage, making it like a great high school regional game where the arena is basically split, or at worst the crowd is 60–40.

Both teams have great coaches who have built rosters to fit their systems.

When I submitted my pool picks yesterday I went with Iowa State, thinking their defense could contain Michigan enough to get the win. But Michigan is much bigger, and I worry that their size will both hamper Joshua Jefferson and give the Wolverines a clear advantage on the boards.

So I was ready to flip this pick.

Until I decided to show some conference love. BIG EIGHT love, mind you, not Big 12, and stuck with the Cyclones.

Michigan State had been my quasi-sleeper pick for a couple weeks. They have some terrific wins. They also had some big losses. I decided the concerns about UConn are overstated. St. John’s is just a bad matchup for them, although Michigan State has some similar qualities to the Johnnies. There’s a huge difference, though, when you play a familiar conference foe that is a bad matchup to a non-conference one.

Besides, I’m probably not giving Duke enough credit for being able to play through their injuries and they’ll end up coming out of the East after all.

So my final, Final Four picks are: UConn, Iowa State, Florida, Arizona. Arizona still to win.

KU beats St. John’s but can’t hang with Duke.

We’ll see how good or bad these look when we get home during the Elite 8.