NFL Predictions
The NFL season begins tonight, the latest blow in the war of dumb against all that is decent in sports. It’s been bad enough that the season has started on Thursday for years. But adding a Wednesday game so they can play a game in Australia on Thursday, US time, is taking things to a whole other level.
Of course, we know that Roger Goodell and the owners are intent on squeezing every dollar possible out of fans. And that they look longingly to European soccer, which between domestic, UEFA, and international competitions, manages to play games pretty much every day, and think to themselves, “By God, let’s take the most violent sport in the world and do the same thing!” Never mind the toll this will take on players, or the impossibility of formatting a fair schedule when it is scattered across all seven days. They’ve been pushing for an 18 game schedule for years. I feel like that is just a ploy to get the players union to agree to play every day of the week in exchange for staying at 17 games.
Wait, you came here for predictions, not pontification.
I am pleased to share that I’ve actually done some research this year. So these will not be the half-assed predictions I normally post this time of year. Three-quarters assed, maybe?
One thing that really struck me while listening to podcasts and reading articles is how the league has become one that can flip on the tiniest of margins. Strength of schedule plays a huge role in picking a favorite. New England rode an easy schedule to a division title last year. Detroit seems to be in that spot this year. We look at metrics like record in close games, and expect luck, good or bad, to not carry over to the next season. Same with injuries. A team decimated one year will surely swing the other way. And if your team skated through without losing a key player last year? Well, better prepare to lose everyone this year. And so on. In a league that has a bunch of very good teams, but all which also have at least one glaring weakness that could torpedo their seasons, success could come down to who each team plays compared to other contenders, and then how each roster is affected by luck.
Anyway, here are my picks for the season. As always, do NOT take these to your sports book of choice.1
AFC
East
The Patriots taking the division last year was unexpected, Drake Maye making a huge leap and Mike Vrabel taking over turned the franchise around. But their success was largely based on an insanely easy schedule. Which will be much more difficult this year.2 Buffalo fired Sean McDermott and brought in Josh Allen’s buddy Joe Brady. They got Allen a potential #1 wide receiver. But, as always, the defense looks suspect, at least beyond the first 11. That said, I’m expecting some regression from the Pats and another elite season from Allen that carries Buffalo to the division crown.
North
Baltimore also brought in a new head coach, but Jesse Minter is a defensive guru, tasked with making the Ravens D formidable once again. Is Lamar Jackson washed, or was last year an aberration? Cincinnati really should have fired their coach, but being one of the cheapest teams in the league means Zac Taylor gets at least one more year. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, the Bengals should have enough to get past the Ravens thanks to an easier schedule. Problem is Burrow rarely stays healthy. And while they made improvements on the defensive side of the ball, the offensive live is still suspect, something you can’t have when you want to keep Burrow upright. I like Burrow more than Jackson, but I trust Jackson to have the better year. Baltimore gets the nod here.
South
One of the easiest picks to make, Houston. They have the best defense in the league. Their offense wasn’t as bad as you think, at least until the playoffs, last year. They added David Montgomery to fix a woeful running game. Baring multiple serious injuries, the Texans should romp.
Aside for the Colts: I have no idea what to think about the Colts. Everyone says Daniel Jones looked better than expected in camp, nine months off an achilles injury. I’m not sure I trust that to hold up against regular season competition. A lot of national observers think the Colts defense could be good, but that comes with a lot of caveats. I think the lack of a pass rush will let them down. Michael Pittman was flawed, but losing him and spending too much money on Alec Pierce, who was injured all summer, seems like something the team will regret sooner rather than later. Throw in a brutal start to the schedule and I think things are more likely to get ugly than mirror the first two months of last year as a pleasant surprise.
West
One of the most interesting divisions in the game! I expect Denver to regress a bit, but that defense is so good they can probably make up for any offensive fallbacks. Like Daniel Jones, I’m not sure I believe that Patrick Mahomes is genuinely 100% healthy. And I think the Chiefs are relying on A LOT of young guys making a huge impact. Los Angeles?3 Well, Mike McDaniel + Justin Hebert should be awesome. I was going to go out on a limb and pick the Chargers to win the division…and then lose to the Chiefs at home in the playoffs. But their schedule is kind of a bitch. Then I looked and the Chiefs and Broncos have the same issue, everyone playing the NFC West and AFC East. Which makes this a coin-flip pick. I don’t believe in the Chiefs at all, but if it comes down to Mahomes vs Hebert vs Bo Nix navigating a tough schedule, I’ll take Mahomes even if his weapons aren’t what they were four years ago. Kansas City
Wild Cards
Denver
Los Angeles
Cincinnati
NFC
East
Man, a lot of people are excited about the Cowboys this year. Their offense should be fantastic, for sure. They’ve made some decent moves to shore up their defense, and have the ability to make a trade between now and November.4 I think they have too many holes, though, where the Eagles continue to have the most balanced roster in the league. The offensive line isn’t where it was two years ago, but they are making adjustments to account for that. Maybe this is the last year of their current mini-dynasty, but I’m going with Philadelphia.
North
True confession: I’ve become obsessed with the NFC North. I’d like to embed with its four teams, happy to watch just their eight games every week,5 reading the writers from each city, listening to local talk shows, etc. This seems like the most fun division because on top of all its shared history, you can make an argument, sometimes strained, for every team to win it. And every team could finish fourth. Even if they regress, the Bears should have a great offense. But their defense is trash.6 Last year I thought the Packers would start slow, then round into form and win the Super Bowl. That never happened. I think they will, again, improve as we get deeper into the season, the return of Micah Parsons a huge factor.7 Minnesota just has great coaching, on both sides of the ball, which makes them greater than the sum of their parts, and primed to steal a division when everyone is beating everyone else up. But I’m going with Detroit, another team that wasn’t as bad as you think last year, was an ill-timed sick day away from making the playoffs, have one of the best offenses in the game, and play an easy schedule.
South
Tampa Bay. Nothing else to talk about here.
West
This is right up there with the AFC West and NFC North as most fun divisions. You have the Super Bowl champs in Seattle, who even with expected regression should be fantastic. You have the LA Rams, the prohibitive favorites this year. You have the perennially injured 49ers, who are due some good luck and weren’t that far behind the Seahawks and Rams last year. Another coin-flip division, but I’ll take LA, assuming Stafford can avoid injury again this year.
Wild Cards
Seattle
Dallas
San Francisco
Playoffs
I’m not diving too deeply into whether my matchups work, but I have Philadelphia and Houston as the #1 seeds.
AFC
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Denver over Kansas City
Buffalo over Baltimore
Houston over Denver
Buffalo over Houston
NFC
Seattle over Dallas
Detroit over San Francisco
Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Los Angeles over Detroit
Seattle over Philadelphia
Los Angeles over Seattle
Super Bowl
Does Matthew Stafford get his legacy-defining second Super Bowl ring or Josh Allen finally get his first. Right now, LA is the more complete team. But they are also the best team that is perhaps closest to disaster because of injury. The Bills will be on a serious run by the time they get to…oh shit, the Super Bowl is at SoFi Stadium! That legendary Rams home-field advantage could be huge!
I kid. The stadium will be at least 60% Bills fans. Josh Allen will carve up the Rams defense and the Bills D will get a last minute stop that gives Buffalo its first Super Bowl title.
I am highly confident in each and every one of these picks, but I remind you, do NOT use them to wager any money you have set aside for retirement, college funds, etc.
1. Or old school bookie if that’s how you roll.
2. At least that’s how it looks now. We all know a schedule that looks difficult or easy in September can change because of injuries, coaching changes that don’t work, etc.
3. I actually typed San Diego first. Dumbest move in the history of franchise moves.
4. Maxx Crosby, anyone?
5. Excepting Bye weeks, of course.
6. Shout out to KU’s Austin Booker, the only Bears defensive player I’ve heard any national voice say a good thing about.
7. Parsons and Mahomes tore their ACLs on the same day. Mahomes is back now, Parson will miss at least a third of the season. Seems fishy to me.