D's Notebook

Month: February 2016 (Page 2 of 2)

Not the Superest Bowl

February 8, 2016 /

So, that was a pretty terrible Super Bowl, huh? Unless you’re a Broncos fan, or were pulling for Peyton to win, I guess.

Fortunately I really only saw about half of the game. We went to a party and I spent most of the first half socializing. By the time we made it home and got the girls to bed, I was able to see the Panthers doink their field goal attempt early in the third quarter. I probably should have just gone to bed rather than continue to watch that disaster of a game.

That’s not entirely fair, I admit. Denver’s defense was sublime. Based on the postgame comments from the Broncos defenders, it sounds like Carolina did nothing they were not totally prepared for. But, still, you have to execute. And the Broncos D did exactly that in one of the best Super Bowl performances in recent memory. Carolina’s defense was pretty good, too. They just couldn’t force turnovers inside the Broncos’ 10 yard line like Denver did to Cam Newton.

Newton was terrible. He performed exactly as I thought he might in a worst case scenario for the Panthers: he was spooked by the speed and ferocity of the Denver D and fell back on his athletic ability to win the game. Only Denver was just as athletic as he was and were able to easily contain him. He looked like a pretty limited quarterback in the parts of the game I saw.

As for his failure to fall on his fourth quarter fumble, I took that more as a sign of a guy who had been totally frustrated and taken out of his game than some larger measure of his heart or “want to.” He had a terrible day, capped by an awful moment. And because he’s Cam Newton, that moment is going to be taken as a sign that all the criticism of him is valid, that he’s a pretender to the throne of Next Great NFL QB, etc. Anyone who has watched him throw his body around all this season should know he’s not a coward, weak, or lacks heart. He was just thoroughly defeated in that moment and made a huge mistake.

As for the other QB, Peyton was once again bad in a Super Bowl. Yet he’s now 2–2. As fans of baseball like to say, flags fly forever. It doesn’t matter that both of his Super Bowl wins came in games where he didn’t do much to determine the final result and which were, broadly, ugly games to watch. Two rings is all that matters.

If you read back through the archives of this site, you’ll see I’ve never been the biggest Peyton fan. His robotic nature and inability to adjust when things got chaotic always bothered me. Off the field, his Eddie Haskell-ness bugged me as well. But, until two years ago when he began to decline, I always thought he was the greatest regular season quarterback in NFL history.

What does this title do for his legacy? Well, it confirms he’s one of the three or four best in NFL history. Because Tom Brady has more rings, and always did so with less offensive talent around him than Peyton had, and has continued to play at a high level where Peyton has faded, I think he’ll always be just ahead of Peyton. And if I want to win a Super Bowl, I’m taking Joe Montana. I would say Montana and Brady are 1A and 1B, with Peyton just behind them.[1] And while the Colts and Broncos playoff failures weren’t always his fault, Peyton’s poor play has always been a big part of those losses. Throw in four mediocre, at best, Super Bowl performances, and there’s no argument that he is better than Brady or Montana.

But no one else can say they were better. Not Favre, not Marino, not Aikman, not Young. Aaron Rogers may have something to say about that before he’s done, but he’s going to need a strong finish to his career to bridge what is a fairly large gap between wherever he ranks today and where Peyton is. There’s no shame in that for Peyton.

  1. If Brady wins another Super Bowl or two, or continues to be awesome for another 4–5 years, I think he can break that tie.  ↩

Fifty

February 7, 2016 /

Friday was a busy day filled with household activities and paperwork.[1] That kept me from getting a Super Bowl prediction in. So, quickly, I’ll try to get something posted here Sunday morning so I am on record.

I’ve not paid too much attention to the pre-game coverage, or read many predictions for how the experts believe the game will play out. But of the general vibe I’ve picked up, it seems like most people want to pick Carolina to win big, but the strength of Denver’s defense has them thinking it will be a close Panthers win.

Of course hidden in that is no one believes that Peyton Manning and the Denver offense will be the deciding factor. Which is really a remarkable thing. Just two years ago the Denver offense was this juggernaut that seemingly no defense could stop. Until they ran into Seattle in the Super Bowl, that is. But the two years in between have brought a rapid decline in Manning’s health and level of play. He’s lost a few key weapons along the way. And in the process, an already stout Denver D has become even stronger. Peyton has turned into a game manager who takes shots in smart moments, but is content to play it safe most of the time.

That transition is even more remarkable given how bad he was the first half of the season. He was flat terrible and Denver was racking up wins in spite of his poor play.

But since returning from injury, he’s steadied his game. It’s as if in that time off, he looked at himself, came to terms with what he could and could not do anymore, and quickly made the transition to the guy who just keeps the engine chugging along instead of the generational difference maker he was most of his career. A little like John Elway late in his career. Hmmm…

That, along with the similarities to two years ago, when a game managing QB paired with a tremendous defense beat Manning’s offensive power for the title, makes me think perhaps I should rethink my approach to the game.

Because I really think Carolina is so good on offense right now, they should dominate this game, Denver’s defense be damned. It’s been scary how good the Panthers have been in the first half of games recently. They score quickly and often and take the life out of their opponents. And while their defense isn’t quite as good as the Broncos’, it’s still awfully good and has been taking opponents out of their games all season.

Can the Carolina offense keep chugging along against the Denver defense? Can Peyton hang in there and solve the Carolina defense? Those are the two questions whose answers will determine the outcome.

Now, who am I rooting for? I really don’t care. I’m not one of those Colts fans who is pulling hard for Peyton. I’m indifferent to whether he wins another Super Bowl before he’s done. Nice way to go out if he can get it, but I will also think it will be funny if he, once again, plays terribly in a season-ending loss. There are two Jayhawks on the Denver defense, so I like the Broncos on that side of the ball.

I really don’t have any strong feelings for Carolina either way. But all the Cam Newton hate makes me pull for him a little. I’m trying to figure out what he’s done that is any worse that two generations of athletes who have celebrated and played with joy in all the major sports. Sure, sometimes his celebrations feel more rehearsed and carefully considered than spontaneous displays of joy. And there is an element of “Hey, look at me!” to them. But I buy into his argument that he’s just a guy who loves to play the game, loves to win, and wants to share those emotions with people watching. Sports is entertainment, after all.

Besides, he’s on the verge of becoming the next great quarterback in the league. I think people get too hung up on his “antics” and fail to realize what a remarkable player he is. His game still needs some polish, for sure. But he’s still young enough where that will come. He’s delivering on some of the promise we saw in Colin Kaepernick before he fell apart.

So, who am I picking? I think it’s a tough one. I’ve gone back-and-forth and have never been terribly confident. I think it stays close most of the time. Cam makes some dazzling plays but also makes some mistakes. Peyton is never spectacular, at times looks lost, but keeps the Broncos in it. And then Denver’s defense makes a big play late.

Denver 24, Carolina 21

  1. I’ll bore you with an accounting of my paperwork efforts next week.  ↩

Friday Vid(s)

February 5, 2016 /

Touching on some of my favorite music of the new year today.

“Quiet Americans” – Shearwater

First, from my favorite album of the year so far, this very mid–80s Bowie-like track from Shearwater.

Shearwater is a band that has slowly grown on me over their career. They began as a side project for two members of Okkervil River, another band I’ve come to love over the years, taking a more art-rock tack than OR did. Eventually Jonathan Meiburg left OR for good, and as he has pushed Shearwater’s sound into a more traditional, indie rock direction, I’ve really come to enjoy their music.

There are at least two songs on their Jet Plane and Oxbow album that I like more than this, but it’s still a quality track. And the album itself is pretty fantastic.

“To Know You / TV Queen” – Wild Nothing

If Shearwater have my favorite album of the first five weeks of 2016, Wild Nothing have blown me away with my favorite single of the year. Wild Nothing have generally been a very good, but familiar sounding, jangle/dream pop band. At least on “To Know You,” they’ve added a healthy, and pleasing, dose of shoegaze to their sound. And the low end of the song hits that vaguely New Order-ish vibe that is somewhere between Krautrock and post-punk. Whatever it is, it sounds amazing and I’ve done some damage to my hearing with it over the past week. Crank this one up!

Oh, and this is a bit of an odd video, for sure, probably best listened to rather than viewed. “TV Queen” is a decent track, too, but the first 5:52 of the video are where the real magic lies.

Some Big 12 Hoops Thoughts

February 1, 2016 /

And now the stretch run begins.

After a weekend of play against SEC teams (more on that in a bit), the Big 12 season gets going again tonight. Every team has ten games to play before the conference tournament. And with six teams within a game of first place, at first glance the lead race seems wide open.

I think that first glance is a bit deceptive. The title is Oklahoma’s to lose. They took predictable losses in Lawrence and Ames, but went to Waco and beat Baylor handily. They still have to go to Morgantown and Austin, but they also own a win in Stillwater, where KU lost. And they don’t seem like a team that’s going to slip up and lose a home game.

How about my Jayhawks? the 11-time defending conference champions have a lot of work to do if they want to keep that streak going. After winning their first Big 12 road game in Lubbock, they’ve lost three-straight, all by double digits. There’s no shame in losing in Ames and Morgantown, but I think the loss at Oklahoma State is going to be the killer. Nothing about the Jayhawks’ play over the past three weeks gives me confidence that this is a team that is going to run off an 8–2 run over the next five weeks and win the league. They might win out at home, but even winning in Fort Worth and Manhattan seems like a tall task right now.

Which is kind of weird, considering a month ago there were a couple national writers saying that KU was the most balanced, most complete team in the country. Then they stopped making shots and quite guarding people on the perimeter. Which has been pretty maddening to watch. Especially the not checking people part. This KU team feels like it has a bunch of B and B+ players. On nights when everyone is locked in and playing well on both ends, they’re better than the sum of those parts. But on the nights when even a couple guys aren’t playing well, they become average and easy to guard really quickly.

So while I think KU has a chance to have a say in who wins the conference title, I also believe they face the worst odds they’ve had in the last 11 years.

Can anyone beat Oklahoma? Maybe. West Virginia is such an odd team. They ran KU out of the building a couple weeks ago. They had a great chance to beat OU in Norman but fell on a last-second shot. They they got worked pretty good by Texas at home and needed two overtimes to win in Manhattan. Looking ahead, they still have two games with Iowa State and Baylor, and go to KU and Texas, plus have Oklahoma at home. There are no breaks in the Big 12 schedule, but that’s a pretty tough path.

Baylor is the biggest surprise in the league, to me. Everyone wrote them off after they got destroyed by KU in their conference opener. But they’re one of the three teams with just two losses. Still, they have a home loss and a brutal schedule ahead.

That schedule angle is the big thing. In the true round robin format of the the Big 12, you can’t really look at anyone’s schedule and say they have a huge advantage going forward. Oklahoma seems like they may have a slight edge. But what if the country’s best outside shooting team suddenly goes through a 2–3 game slump? With at least one game against a ranked team every week, the losses can pile up quick if any team goes cold, has a key injury, or just goes through a funk.

But I don’t think OU going through a bad 10-stretch is very likely. Which I’m fine with. As I’ve said before, I really like this Oklahoma team, especially Buddy Hield. I love that their roster is filled with three- and four-year-guys who have put the time in, stayed in school, and gotten a little better each year. And I think Lon Kruger is a great coach.

And I’ll be honest: this is probably the weakest KU team over the past 12 years. A few times during the streak the Jayhawks have come back from two games down in the middle of the season, or a game back with two weeks to play. But as unlikely as those titles seemed, they were always claimed under the leadership of NBA lottery talent. There’s not a lottery pick, and perhaps even a first round pick, in KU’s rotation right now. That’s not an excuse or complaint. It just means that, for me at least, it’s easier to take a look around the league and think, “Yep, this is a year we can’t win it.”

Still, Rock Chalk, bitches.

As for Saturday, the Big 12 – SEC challenge was fun. Meaningless fun, but still fun. I laughed at West Virginia and Florida getting in a shoving match at midcourt before their game. I was in awe of Hield’s performance in the second half against LSU. And I thoroughly enjoyed KU beating Kentucky to cap the night.

Wait, that’s not entirely true. I enjoyed the outcome of the KU-UK game. To say I enjoyed watching it would not be accurate, though. Where the KU-OU game a month ago was an artistic masterpiece, Saturday’s game was a tortured affair. The team that won missed 17 free throws. That team’s senior leader airballed a free throw early in the game, and struggled to hit one of two to tie the game late. The teams combined to play about 10 possessions of decent defense all night. Both teams had stretches where they looked like they had never been taught how to play as a team on offense. I messaged a couple friends late in the game, when KU kept either missing free throws or taking horrible offensive possessions each time they could tie or take the lead, and asked, “Are they trying to throw this game?”

But because it was Kansas and Kentucky, with ESPN Game Day on campus, and a wound-up crowd yelling for the entire 45 minutes of gameplay, it ended up having a level of greatness. Just not as great as the game in Allen Fieldhouse on January 4.

I don’t get why some people don’t like playing these games in January. Why does it matter when you play a non-conference game? The games count just the same whether they’re played in early December, over the holidays, or in the midst of the conference season. I think the players all get pumped up a little to play someone outside the conference. As a KU fan, some of my best memories of my basketball youth are non-conference games in January and February, notably games against Memphis State in 1985 and Louisville in 1986.

To me the genius part, though, was picking this weekend, when there were no NFL games. The Big 12 – SEC matchups were the biggest story in sports on Saturday. That’s worth any change in routine the games cause. Sometimes I think coaches just like to complain when they aren’t in complete control of everything.

Finally, a few writers have pushed the idea that KU and Kentucky should play every year. I’m down with that. They already play every third year on a neutral site in the Champions Challenge. I dig the idea of them playing in Lawrence and Lexington the other two years in each cycle. Not every game is going to be as dramatic as this year’s. And hopefully they aren’t as terrible as last year’s Champions Classic game. But you figure most will be competitive and feature a ton of guys who have been playing against and with each other all through their summer league careers and who will have their names called early on NBA Draft night. Let’s see those guys square off on their home courts instead of only in places like Chicago, New York, and Indianapolis.

Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind if Kentucky wins like eight in a row!

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