Early NCAA Thoughts

Here we are, NCAA tournament time. The time of some of my favorite, non-family of course, moments of my life. And also some of my least favorite. I suppose that’s the good thing about KU’s relative mediocrity this year: if I genuinely have no expectations, there is only opportunity for good memories this week. I expect them to shit the bed, so anything other than that will be a pleasant surprise.

The Jayhawks didn’t do a thing in the Big 12 tournament to change how I think about them. Moments of brain-dead play, often from the most experienced players, against Colorado. Then the Arizona game was the exact opposite of when the teams played a week before in Lawrence. Instead of the Jayhawks controlling the game and the Wildcats making constant runs, even briefly taking the lead in the second half, this time it was Arizona in front and KU rallying. KU made the big plays late in Lawrence; Arizona was clutch in KC. Two pretty even teams playing two pretty even games over six days. Not that long ago this was a game that KU 100% would have won in Kansas City. This year’s team is on a different, worse, level, though.

Crazy that the Arizona game was the first time KU had worn blue in the Big 12 tournament since the 2008 championship game. And even then they only wore blue because of losing the regular season game vs Texas, and thus the tiebreaker when determining who the home team was for the regular season co-champs. This has been a truly glorious era of KU hoops, and this was just another bitter reminder of how the last two years have brought all that to a screeching stop.

As for this coming week, playing Arkansas might be the ideal draw for this team. But not for the reasons you think. The Razorbacks blew out the preseason #1 Jayhawks in an exhibition game back in October in John Calipari’s first game in Fayetteville. Hunter Dickinson didn’t play, and KU clearly didn’t run anything serious on offense. But that game pointed out flaws early, like the lack of shooting and athleticism, that were masked in early wins over Michigan State and Duke. Arkansas has their own issues between injuries and inconsistencies and perhaps some general weird vibes in the program. But losing to them, likely because the Hogs are more athletic and can exploit KU’s deficiencies, would be a perfect bookend to the year. I’m already fearing DaJuan Harris going 2–11 from 3 as Calipari happily leaves him wide open to shoot all night.

But beating them sure would be fun, and I think KU is the better team if focused. Do they have one good game in them?

Should the Jayhawks survive the Hogs another near-perfect storyline opponent likely awaits in St. John’s. I say perfect because that game will shine a bright light on the choices Self made two springs ago. He sacrificed freshmen Ernest Udeh and Zuby Ejiofor for Hunter Dickinson. I contend that was a decent gamble. He had Kevin McCullar coming back, Dickinson was an All American big, and you build around those two established players instead of two raw, rising sophomore bigs.

Udeh has struggled with inconsistency at TCU, although I contend he would have developed better had he stayed at KU.

Ejiofor, however, has been a true revelation this year. His offensive stats aren’t as good as Dickinson’s (17.6 ppg, 10.0 rpg vs 14.6/8.0) but he’s been red hot late in the season. Zuby shoots better from the field and is a better defender. He is a perfect match for Rick Pitino’s style and his teammates, where Hunter is clearly not a good match for the talent around him.[1] None of us know for sure if Hunter is a good teammate or not, but there always seems to be some cloud over the team that might lead back to him. Zuby seems like a guy everyone would love to play with.

Who knows, Hunter may dominate Zuby if the teams play on Saturday. And that may not matter as St. John’s is genuinely the better team. I’m kind of laughing at the thought of KU’s guards facing the Johnnies’ pressure. We have dinner plans Friday and I considered moving them to Saturday so I could avoid the KU game. Then again, it may be a cathartic end to this mini-run and worth my time even if it is ugly.

I’m sure there are some KU fans talking themselves into things finally clicking and the team making a run. I can’t do that. Even in this team’s best wins this season – Duke, Michigan State, Iowa State, Arizona – the team has never been fully locked in. When it doesn’t happen over four-plus months, it’s not suddenly going to happen when the tournament begins. A shame.

Please, never rank KU #1 in the preseason again.

As for the broader tournament, I’m really struggling to come up with interesting picks. It feels like the top 4–6 teams are CLEARLY the best teams in the country. I watched more of the SEC tournament last weekend than any other, and kind of fell in love with one seeds Auburn and Florida, and two seed Tennessee.[2] Those three teams are all loaded with talent and athletes and shooters and can guard. But each also has these awful lulls because they get out of control or play too fast or can’t create in the halfcourt or take ten terrible shots in a row. Then I look to try to find an upset over them and think of how bad Michigan State looked when they lost to KU in November, or how many injuries Iowa State is fighting, or how young Texas Tech is, etc.

I love Houston, but that team also seems to be lacking something that I can’t put my finger on. Maybe because they are a true program team, totally bought into their coach’s philosophies rather than loaded with obvious talent? Which probably means they’re going to race through the bracket with ease.

Naturally Duke got the easiest draw of any of the #1 seeds. Amazing how often that happens. Maybe Cooper Flagg will re-tweak his ankle this weekend and that will doom their efforts to get out of the east. I think that’s something America can get behind in this divided age.[3]

At the moment I lean towards picking all four #1 seeds, which is dumb. I feel like Florida might be the most talented roster in the country, but St. John’s is the most complete #2 seed. Naturally they are together. If KU wasn’t the #7 seed I would complain more about how the west is, by far, the stoutest region. But it doesn’t matter to us.

I’m going to sit on this a couple more days and offer my picks on Thursday.