Day: May 21, 2025

The long wait is over: the NBA Eastern Conference finals begin tonight. The Pacers have been sitting around for more than week as the Knicks closed out the Celtics and then the stupid NBA calendar got situated. Somehow the Western Conference finals started before the Eastern, even though the Thunder just finished their series against Denver on Sunday. Dumb.

Anyway, it’s finally here. This is a truly fascinating series and it’s been fun to hear the NBA podcasters I pay attention to twist themselves around trying to pick a winner. While most seem to land on Knicks in seven, they still have a hard time getting there.

For most reasons you have to throw out last year’s Pacers triumph in seven games in the semifinals. The Knicks were mega-banged up in that series and were literally falling apart by that final blowout. They’ve added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, and Mitchell Robinson is finally healthy. Meanwhile the Pacers are basically the same team, with Pascal Siakam having an entire season in Indy and Andrew Nembhard turning into a starter in his second NBA season. Bennedict Mathurin was out last year because of injury and is the only big change in Indiana’s main rotation.

Despite the roster changes I think the Pacers did take away a lot from winning last year. They won a game seven on the road, at the time the most anticipated basketball game in New York City in a generation. Although they were swept by the Celtics in the conference finals, they easily could have won three of those games. In the NBA there is often a stair-stepped process for teams to win a championship. The Pacers took a couple of those steps last year.

The stylistic matchup is terrific. Both teams try to wear down their opponents, but in very different ways. The Pacers are always forcing tempo, running on offense and pressing on defense. The Knicks are trying to batter you on both ends, the fouling-est team that never gets called for it on defense and then Jalen Brunson punishing people at the end of the shot clock on offense. Both teams’ strengths line up exactly with their opponents’ weaknesses. The Pacers are deep, athletic, and can really shoot it, but are small and basically don’t worry about offensive rebounding. The Knicks are thin, injury-prone, but have an ideal, modern, non-scoring big in Robinson, who is a shot-blocking fool and rebounding machine. To me he might be the key to the entire series, as the Pacers don’t have anyone who can match him. Both teams are built around point guards who are end-of-game wizards.

I think the Knicks are too reliant on Brunson. So I probably just jinxed them into Towns and Bridges having huge series. I think the Pacers do a much better job of always having another player step up, not just game-to-game but moment-to-moment. So now Siakam and Myles Turner are going to be dominated by Mitchell, Towns, and OG Anunoby.

The Pacers might shoot and run the Knicks out of the series. Josh Hart might get away with 1000 fouls on defense (then bitch on every dead ball about the calls he’s not getting) and take Tyrese Haliburton, Nembhard, and/or Aaron Nesmith out of what they want to do. We know Brunson is going to fall down 100 times a game, then lie there like he got shot, and draw fouls when he didn’t get touched.[1]

Yes, I’m already getting worked up about the refs and the Knicks. Just like last year when Turner is going to get called for two absolute garbage illegal screens in crunch time while Hart never comes close to fouling out.

This is a tough one.

If the Pacers can steal a win in one of the first games in New York, I say they win in six. If not, Knicks in seven. It’s going to be nerve wracking no matter who wins and in how many games.