NBA Final Preview

The NBA Finals have arrived. I’ve been listening to podcasts previewing the series all week, and reading everything The Ringer has posted on the topic. Since I know most of you are 1) far busier than me and 2) don’t care as much about the result as I do, allow me to offer a summarization of all that content: the Pacers are a very good, super entertaining, resilient team that plays a style that is tough defend and absolutely deserves the full respect of every basketball fan and analyst. BUT, Oklahoma City has a historically stout defense that seems designed to offer matchup nightmares at every position for the Pacers (and just about any team) and will have the best player in the series, thus the Pacers have almost no chance.

It’s been funny to hear all these talking (and writing) heads repeat almost the same message, being very careful to make sure people understand they really like the Pacers.

I get it.

Even wearing my Gold-colored glasses it’s hard to find an angle that makes this series work for the Pacers. Not just because of the pure matchups between these two teams, but because true upsets are rare in the NBA Finals. The closest thing we’ve had to an upset in the past 20 years was when Toronto beat Golden State in 2019. The Raptors actually won more games than the Warriors that year, but were viewed as underdogs because, well, they weren’t the Warriors. And in that series it took Kevin Durant only playing limited minutes because of an earlier injury then blowing out his achilles and Klay Thompson blowing his ACL to clear the path for the Raptors title.

Before that you have to go back to 2004 when the Pistons knocked off the Lakers, in truly the biggest NBA Finals upset of my life. Those Lakers were heavily favored but were also getting old and dysfunctional and the Pistons were uniquely positioned to give them fits.

So we have one upset, that really wasn’t an upset, that came about because two of the best players of their generation suffered season ending injuries during the series, and the other was because a team was old and hated each other.

Sadly for the Pacers, the Thunder have neither of these issues. They seem to be completely healthy at the moment and are super young and project an image of everyone being on the same page. Maybe there’s an injury during the series that shifts things, but the Thunder aren’t the Knicks, seemingly always teetering on the edge of losing all their best players because of overuse. And the Pacers are the team that is more banged up at the moment.

Several folks have used last year’s Eastern Conference Finals as a model for this series. The Celtics swept the Pacers in four games, but the Pacers easily could have been ahead 3–1 rather than going home. It was a deserved sweep by a better team, but three of the games were decided in the last 10–15 seconds, one going to overtime. The Pacers battled, but they either weren’t good enough or made too many errors in the game’s biggest moments.

I’m not sure this series will be as exciting and tense as that one. It’s hard to look at the individual matchups and find paths for where the Pacers can keep games basically even until the closing minutes, when their crazy, late-game, devil magic can take over. I don’t think it will be a game of blowouts, but also I’m not sure the final result will be in doubt as long in each contest as it was in the Celtics series.

For the Pacers to have a chance their big two can have no slippage. Tyrese Haliburton can’t have the games where he’s passive and lets the Thunder dictate his pace or decisions on offense. He can’t have either bad shooting games, or games where he simply doesn’t shoot, something that has happened once in each of the Pacers first three playoff series. Pascal Siakam, quite simply, has to be exceptional every night. He has to get behind the Thunder defense for easy baskets like he’s done all year. He has to be efficient hunting mismatches and then punishing them in the half court. He has to stay on the court by not picking up cheap fouls.

Even if those two can stay locked in for every game, there can be no slippage by the supporting cast. Myles Turner will get open looks in this series; the Thunder’s defense is designed to allow those because of how they close off the paint. He needs to knock those down. Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith can’t get suckered into forcing things when the ball ends up in their hands late in the shot clock. Both tend to get into trouble when they have to drive and have limited options. The Thunder defense is set up to force exactly those situations, and then kill players who make bad decisions when faced with swarming defenders from all angles.

There aren’t a lot of weaknesses on the Thunder for the Pacers to attack. I think the biggest Pacers advantage will be forcing the pace, but the Thunder are fine playing fast. In fact, they play faster than the Pacers by some measures. The key will be to get the Thunder’s D overreacting to pressure and finding ways to get wide open looks in the secondary break, or in the early opportunities out of the half court when the Thunder snuff out Pacers breaks.

One other small measure of hope for Indiana fans is that Rick Carlisle and his staff are excellent tacticians. Each series they’ve found a new way to attack their opponent that was different from how the Pacers played during the regular season. The Thunder don’t have many flaws, but I’m confident Carlisle has found some and designed new ways to attack them. Are those series swinging adjustments or ones that will simply win a few possessions before the Thunder counter and regain their advantages? We’ll start to find out tonight.

My prediction has not changed: heart Thunder in six, mind Thunder in five. Which aligns exactly with almost every podcaster I’ve listened to. For the record, I had that locked in before I listened to any of them. So they’re copying me, not the other way around.[1] There aren’t many reasons to be confident the Pacers will capture their first NBA championship over the next couple weeks. At least they have the chance.