NFL Predictions

It’s that time of year again: the moment for some extremely half-assed NFL predictions.

To begin, let’s spend a few minutes discussing my local team, the Indianapolis Colts.

This week The Athletic ran a feature about what franchises were the most optimistic about the upcoming season. This was based on reader input, so highly unscientific. The Colts were dead last. I could stop right there and move on to the league-wide predictions.

The Colts are a such a mess that despite some major improvements on the defense, one of the best running backs in the game, and a group of above average receivers, only the most wildly confident of fans has any belief that the team will be worth watching this season. The way the front office and coaching staff have made a mess of the quarterback situation for the past decade colors everything. Even if the rest of the team is solid, the expectation is that despite playing in the weak AFC South, the quarterback is going to outweigh all else and turn this into another lost season. I think the real fear is the team will again fall into that range of true mediocrity and win just enough games to not be in the running for a difference-making quarterback in next spring’s draft. And the cycle will repeat.[1]

There’s also the feeling around Indy that no matter what happens on the field, there will be a new coach and GM next year, which means a full reset is in order. Throw in (kind of) new ownership and any optimism is being pushed down the road at least a year until that new leadership comes in plus we get a feel for how Jim Irsay’s daughters are going to run the team.[2]

Maybe Daniel Jones manages the game just fine. Maybe Tyler Warren is the perfect target for his short passes. Maybe Jonathan Taylor can stay healthy and run for close to 2000 yards. Maybe the offensive line can replace two lost starters without missing a beat. Maybe the defensive front is as stout as observers are saying and the defensive backs can stop losing a player every week to injury. Even then you’re looking at 8–9 wins at the very best. Which, again, means the Colts are drafting a lineman and not a quarterback.

You hate to overreact to week one, but if the Colts can’t beat Miami at home this week, things could get ugly quick. Keep in mind the Colts haven’t won a week one game in 12 years. Despite playing another team in some turmoil at home, this is not a given. Lose that one and I think you’ll see a lot of cheap tickets for home games available on the secondary market the rest of the season, often snatched up by visiting fans. And the Colts fans who do come will be loud in expressing their dissatisfaction.

Now for the rest of the league.

AFC East

Buffalo as long as Josh Allen is healthy. I’m not sold on any of the other three teams being strong enough to challenge them.

AFC North

Baltimore as long as Lamar Jackson is healthy. Cincinnati will be more fun to watch because their offense might be legendary and their defense should be terrible, making for wild, high scoring games. I’m not sure all the parts fit in Pittsburgh. Cleveland gonna Cleveland.

AFC South

Houston as long as CJ Stroud is healthy. Hell, he might be able to miss half the season and the Texans could still win this pathetic division.

AFC West

Kansas City as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy. So many people are crazy pumped about Denver. I don’t get it. They were lucky often,[3] and were poor against good teams last season. They might be better than a year ago, but I don’t see a team that’s going to challenge the Chiefs over 17 games. Oakland/Las Angeles/Oakland/Las Vegas will be better. The Chargers will be the Chargers. A tough division, to be sure, and that may drag the Chiefs win total down a little, but they are still the champs.

AFC Wildcards

Denver
Cincinnati
San Diego

NFC East

Philadelphia as long as Jalen Hurts is healthy. In my limited time watching last night, I was surprised that Dallas could hang with them, so this division might be tighter than I first expected. Washington will regress unless Jayden Daniels is truly a generational player. New York will be better, but still pretty stinky.

NFC North

The most interesting division in the sport. Can Detroit keep their momentum going after losing both coordinators? Can Jordan Love stay on the field and limit his turnovers, and will Micah Parsons be healthy enough to elevate the defense so the Packers can challenge the Lions? Minnesota might be the most talented team in the game, but are running who is an effectively a rookie quarterback out who hasn’t played in nearly two years. Can Ben Johnson get Caleb Williams to the level Chicago expected when they drafted him? I’m torn between Detroit and Green Bay. I’ll mentally flip a coin and take the Packers.

NFC South

Tampa Bay as long as Baker Mayfield is healthy. Almost as crappy a division otherwise as the AFC South. In fact, because of schedule differences, I’m picking the Bucs as my shock #1 seed in the NFC.

NFC West

I heard a stat last week that I have not verified but sounds true: San Francisco has either made at least the NFC title game or missed the playoffs for 22 straight seasons. That is wild, wild stuff. This division is similar to the AFC West just without the clear favorite. Every team could win it, but every team is also one key injury away from falling apart. Christian McCaffrey is already on the injured report because of his calf. Healthy now or not, he’s not holding up all season. So I’ll DQ the Niners. Matthew Stafford isn’t playing 17 games, so the Rams are suspect. Does anyone really trust Arizona? That leaves Seattle, I guess. I’ll go with the Seahawks but I’m not crazy about it.

NFC Wildcards

Detroit
Minnesota
Dallas

Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore (2) over San Diego (7)
Kansas City (3) over Denver (6)
Houston (4) over Cincinnati (5)

Buffalo (1) over Houston
Kansas City over Baltimore

Buffalo over Kansas City
The Bills finally get over the hump. Unless they don’t.

NFC
Philadelphia (2) over Minnesota (7)
Green Bay (3) over Dallas (6)
Detroit (5) over Seattle (4)

Tampa Bay (1) over Detroit
Green Bay over Philadelphia

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl

Green Bay 31, Buffalo 24. Poor Buffalo. I think the Packers get locked in and healthy and go on a run through the playoffs.

As always, do NOT take these picks to your favorite betting app or friendly, neighborhood bookie. I am not responsible for your gambling losses.