A Mid-Lease Car Update

As we are in the back half of October, that means I am officially halfway through my current auto lease. With 18 months in the books as an EV owner, and 18 months left before I need to make a decision on my next car, it seemed like a good moment to check in and see how I feel about things.

It is a fraught time to be an EV owner. The full power of our federal government has turned against any and all efforts to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and expand our native industry in related fields, all in the name of “protecting American manufacturing.” It’s not the point of this post, but that is as head in the sand as you can get about climate change, moving to renewables, and keeping the US on the forefront of the latest technologies. China has already passed us, in most ways, in the EV space. If we abandon the industry, stubbornly insisting that gas-powered vehicles must remain the default, we will have no chance of catching up when it becomes obvious we made the wrong choice. All because EVs are “woke” in the eyes of a cognitively compromised toddler in an 80-year-old’s body.

Oh, and there’s the whole Elon Musk thing. Thankfully that has calmed down a bit. I do own an anti-Elon bumper sticker, but figured since I live in Indiana, slapping it on my car might cause more trouble than leaving my bumper naked. He’s still an out-of-touch weirdo who has far too much influence on the world outside his businesses, but at least he’s kind of shut up for the moment.

Anyway, the car, right? That’s why we’re here?

I’m still like 98% in love with my Model Y. There are, like any car, some minor annoyances, but nothing that makes me think, “Gee, I can’t wait to turn this in and get something else.” As much as I loved my Audi Q5, there were a handful of inconveniences that had me looking forward to what was next.

My use of the car has really changed this calendar year. With L not playing travel ball over the summer, I didn’t take as many long trips in it as I expected, so my mileage is very low. That had the greatest impact on my tire life. EVs hate tires. The explanation you hear most is that is because of how much they weigh. I would argue against that, though. My Model Y weighs only marginally more than my Q5, and over 1000 pounds less than my Chevy Tahoe. I think it’s more about how people drive their EVs, taking advantage of all that immediate power and torque, blowing through their layers of rubber faster than they would in a traditional vehicle of similar size and weight.

I haven’t done enough research on the tires Teslas ship with, but mine are performance models, which may also break down a little quicker.

I was nearly halfway through my tire tread when I had them rotated at about 8000 miles, which seemed insane. Since then I’ve been a little more conscious about how I drive, always keeping the car in Chill mode unless I’m showing off for a new passenger, hoping to stretch this original set out as long as I can. I fear even with my reduced driving I will still have to replace them at some point in the second half of my lease. I miss the days when 40,000 mile tires lasted 40,000 miles.

Without any other major issues, the question becomes what will I do when this lease ends? When Elon was tearing the government up, there was no doubt that I would be driving something other than a Tesla in May 2027. I won’t say that’s totally changed, but perhaps the window is open slightly to either keeping my current Model Y if possible, or at least considering another Tesla.[1] I worry about Musk’s focus for the company. Tesla does so many things correctly that everyone else is chasing, most notably charging and software, but he seems more interested in his robot dreams than making the next Model Y dramatically better than the current one.

The elimination of the EV tax credit changes the math on what my next car can/should be. When I start shopping we will be smack in the middle of a four-year stretch where we have two kids in college. That puts a serious crimp on our budgeting and losing that $7500 credit doesn’t help. Also, with L going off to college, I may be driving even less than I currently am. Do I need an EV with a battery big enough to get to Cincinnati or Bloomington easily and that can haul stuff to-and-from dorms? Might the better choice, both in terms of budget and needs, be to downsize to more of a “city car” and rely on S’s Telluride for those longer trips?

When I got my Tesla in April 2024, I expected that there would be a whole range of competent competitors when that lease was up. Thanks to all the punitive measures of our government, EV development in the affordable range seems to have come to a halt. Chevy mades decent EVs, but have scaled back their long-term plans. Kia/Hyundai makes very good EVs, although they are still plagued by the electrical issues that drove me away from them 20 months ago. And the Korean manufacturers may begin focusing on other markets thanks to their recent battles with the US government over multiple issues. Volkswagen might be in serious trouble, as they face pressures from Chinese manufacturers in Europe. There’s a part of me that can see the standard VW line disappearing as the company focuses on its higher-end brands like Audi and Porsche, although that could be a decade away.

I’m still anxiously awaiting the release of the Rivian R2 sometime in 2026 (fingers crossed). Hopefully they arrive on time, in the price range promised, and lack some of the QC issues the current range of Rivians have shown as they have expanded their production numbers. But might that be too much car for my needs in 2027 and beyond?

Then there’s the option of going back to a gas powered vehicle, or perhaps a hybrid. If I’m not going to be driving much, do I really need a car that has tons of power or is zippy?[2]

That is all a year-and-a-half away. Based on my first 18 months, I would still absolutely recommend EVs for people that are in the market for a new car.[3] The loss of the tax credit complicates matters, but if your budget is in the $40,000–55,000 range, they should remain part of your shopping process, even with all the new baggage that comes with EV ownership.