Tag: NFL (Page 8 of 10)

Yes! It is that time of year: time for fearless football predictions!

I admit up front that my predictions are even more half-assed than normal this year. That’s because my regular disdain for preseason football was combined with the Royals leading the division this year. So I’ve been able to spend even less time than normal avoiding NFL news as I’ve been fully immersed in all things Royal. More than likely there have been half-a-dozen season ending injuries I know nothing about that will affect some of the teams I’m picking to do good things.

First, some thoughts about the Colts. They’re certainly going all-in this year, signing a bundle of free agents who are all at the tail ends of their careers. Obviously the hope is that the Colts can squeeze another year or two out of Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, etc. and surrounded them with weapons like Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, etc. will slow their declines a bit. Ideally they’d be signing a bunch of young guys on the upswing and build a core that can stay together for 4–5 years. But between cap space and a dearth of those kinds of players on the open market, I can’t say I argue all that much with the Colts’ strategy.

Of course, the real question is are Gore, Johnson, etc. enough to get the Colts over the top in the AFC? That’s where I’m not so sure. No matter the source, it’s clear the Patriots have some kind of voodoo magic going for them. I don’t think the Colts found the kryptonite for the Pats’ sorcery in their offseason signings.

But here’s the thing that really gives me pause about the Colts: I have a bad feeling about Andrew Luck staying healthy this year. He’s been beaten and battered every year since he came into the league. The Colts o-line is still suspect, at best. I have a fear that this is the year he either takes one too many hits, or one huge hit, and that keeps him from playing an entire season. I’ve had that vibe all summer. I really hope that is just needless worrying on my part.

OK, onto the predictions!

AFC East

Man, I’ve been saying the Patriots have one more run in them for about five years now. So clearly my predictions powers are locked in. As long as Brady is under center and Belichick is on the sidelines, this division is theirs. New England

AFC North

The classic “a bunch of decent but no real great teams” division. One injury could play a huge role in who ends up winning this thing. I’ll stick with Baltimore, mostly because they seem to have their own, lighter version of voodoo magic and lack glaring weaknesses.

AFC South

Houston has that monster defensive line, but no offense. This division is Indianapolis’s provided Luck stays healthy.

AFC West

Does Peyton have one more run in him, or is this his “Willie Mays, 1973 World Series” season? I’m wagering he’s good enough to lead Denver to one more division title.

Wildcards

Cincinnati, Kansas City

NFC East

Do you trust Dallas to do what they did last year, or at least get close, again? Or do they turn back into team turmoil, equally capable of blowing someone out and of choking away winnable games? I’ll stick with Dallas, because their defense should be healthy and much improved this year.

NFC North

Green Bay in a runaway.

NFC South

Drew Brees isn’t as close to the end as Peyton is, but this feels like his last, best shot to make a deep run before the Saints blow up their roster completely. New Orleans.

NFC West

Seattle.

Wildcards

Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Playoffs

AFC

Kansas City over Denver. Farewell, Peyton. Maybe he can think about being a pitch-man on the teevee commercials. Call me crazy, but I think he might be OK at that.
Baltimore over Cincinnati. Always take Flacco over Dalton in the playoffs.

Indianapolis over Kansas City. Just like always.
New England over Baltimore. Belichick is all up in the Ravens’ heads.

New England over Indianapolis. Just like always.

Hey, some of those results look awfully familiar!

NFC

Atlanta over New Orleans. The Saints’ glory era ends in an upset loss at home.
Philadelphia over Dallas. Shocker!

Green Bay over Atlanta. Ugly weather = Packers win.
Seattle over Philadelphia. Closer than you might think.

Seattle over Green Bay. Would it be too much to ask for an insane, classic game like last year’s again? Probably so, and this ends up being a blowout.

Now wait a minute, am I even trying, or just cutting/pasting from last year?

Super Bowl

Redemption vs. coronation! Karma vs. Predestination! Wilson vs. Brady! Carroll vs. Belichick!
Seattle 31, New England 30

Mark it down!

Funny how fast the NFL season goes when you spend the first two months of Sundays on the soccer fields, casually following scores and paying more attention to fantasy stats.

But here we are, Wild Card weekend. Thus, my patented, half-assed picks for who will make it to Glendale in a month.

AFC

Wild Card Round

• Pittsburgh over Baltimore. A bit of a tough pick, given the Steelers injury issues. But these aren’t the Ray Lewis Ravens. They’re not going into the Steel City and winning a playoff game.
• Indianapolis over Cincinnati. Ugh. No faith in either team. The Colts have pretty much fallen apart since the calendar flipped to December. Defense leaking holes, offense can’t get on track, Andrew Luck turning the ball over with impunity. But do you trust Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis to go on the road and win a playoff game? Feels like one where Luck makes a bunch of mistakes early, then digs the Colts out late.

Divisional Round

• New England over Indianapolis. Some things never change.
• Pittsburgh over Denver. I know this is a bit of a sexy pick, as everyone has jumped off the Broncos bandwagon. Thus, I feel a little dirty making it. And it wouldn’t surprise me if the week off means Denver gets things figured out for one more run. But I also have visions of Pittsburgh abusing Peyton and this being a sad (potentially) final chapter to his career.

AFC Title Game

• New England over Pittsburgh. I keep wanting to discount the Patriots. At their best this year, I don’t think they approached the Broncos’ best. They had a few absolute clunkers thrown in. But that’s kind of the nature of the NFL these days. Few great teams, meaning the best teams can have wild swings of performance. Brady and Belichick get it done one more time.

NFC

Wild Card Round

• Carolina over Arizona. If the Cards had a quarterback, I’d pick them here. But I just can’t believe in a team that is on their 15th QB of the season, even if all they have to do is beat a terrible Carolina team.
• Dallas over Detroit. Man, the absolute jewel of the weekend. Let’s hope it lives up to the hype. I keep wondering how the Cowboys are doing it. But they keep performing, and have even gotten better over the last half of the season.

Divisional Round

• Seattle over Carolina. Come on.
• Dallas over Green Bay. The Packers keep fooling us. This is the year I stop falling for it. The Cowboys defense is the difference. Hopefully it’s another shoot out, though.

NFC Title Game

• Seattle over Dallas. What a story line if Tony Romo could go into Seattle and win an NFC championship. His botched point-after hold in 2007 was the first epic collapse of his career. I just can’t see him and the other Dallas weapons consistently solving the Legion of Boom, though. And Russell Wilson will, maddeningly, do just enough to win.

Super Bowl

Old and creaky vs. young and potent? Please.

Seattle 27, New England 13

Whoo, what a busy week. I’m on library duty for all three girls this year, and I decided to stack those assignments in the same week. That makes them easier to remember, but also sucked up a lot of time this week. In addition to that, I have a small work project I’ve been hammering away on. I’ll share more about it later.

So here we are and it’s Friday already. I put this together last night, because I think I’d have to shut down the blog if I didn’t.

After five months of watching baseball nearly every night, I am now, on Thursday night, watching pro football. Seems like as good of a time as any to crank out my patented NFL previews for the coming season.

But before I cart those half-assed guesses out, a few observations from the opening moments of the NBC broadcast.

• A little odd, at least to me, that the Seahawks used the opening refrain from The Verve’s “Bittersweet Symphony” as they unveiled their Super Bowl banner. Great song.¹ Not sure there’s anything bittersweet about winning a Super Bowl. Or maybe they’re saying it’s bittersweet that their six months of celebrating have come to an end. Whoa. That’s kind of brilliant. If that’s what they meant. Otherwise it’s dumb.
• Now I know Arianna Grande is the flavor of the month. And I know the first Thursday night game of the year is a national showcase, not a local one. I still think it’s a little weird to have a girl from Miami sing the National Anthem in Seattle. By the way, is she like 4’9’’, 80 lbs? She’s like the tiniest thing ever. Well except for her voice, obviously.
• Wait. Were the guys in that DirectTV commercial with the Cowboys and Giants fans tackling each other supposed to be a gay couple? Didn’t he say they were “like any other couple?” My mind is kind of blown. I have a feeling NBC and DirectTV are going to get letters and a bunch of Fox News blowhards will have a field day with that. “HOW DARE YOU INJECT YOUR LIBERAL, GAY AGENDA ON MY FOOTBALL!”
• OK, one more whoa. Icky Woods? Man, that dude blew up. “Gonna get some cold cuts!” is a solid line, though. Not quite “Cut! That! Meat!” But still good.
  Now on to the picks.

AFC East: New England

One day this won’t be such an easy pick. But not this year, and likely not for another two or three years.

AFC North: Ummm, Baltimore, I guess

I don’t trust a team in this division. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or the Ravens could all win it. Whoever does win, it won’t be pretty.

AFC South: Indianapolis

I saw Peter King picked the Colts to make it to the Super Bowl this year. That seems optimistic. I think Houston hangs with the Colts all year. In fact, I bet they’re in first place for the first half of the season. But the Colts will close the year on a six or seven game winning streak to take the division.

AFC West: Denver

Also pretty easy, as long as Peyton stays healthy.

AFC Wildcards

Houston
Kansas City

NFC East: Philadelphia

This Chip Kelly thing is fun.

NFC North: Chicago

Green Bay is the better team. But they always have a bunch of big injuries. This year will be no different.

NFC South: New Orleans

They play 11 games in domes (or semi-domes in Dallas’ case). They’ll be good for nine or ten wins in those games.

NFC West: Seattle

Hangover? Maybe. But San Francisco is fading a bit, between injuries and age and suspensions.

NFC Wildcards

Green Bay
San Fransisco

Playoffs

AFC

Indianapolis over Kansas City. Like always.
Houston over Baltimore
Denver over Houston
New England over Indianapolis. Like (almost) always.
Denver over New England

NFC

Green Bay over Chicago
New Orleans over San Francisco
Seattle over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Seattle over Philadelphia

Super Bowl

Damn. I really picked a rematch? Well, Denver doesn’t have to be as good on offense this year, because they will be much better on defense. And if they get the #1 seed, nobody is beating them in Denver in the playoffs. Same deal for Seattle. Unless Philly can steal the #1 seed away, no one is going to Seattle and winning in January.
Peyton Manning has played in three Super Bowls. He’s played like garbage in all three. Surely, if he gets one more shot, he finally has a performance for the ages and cements himself as the greatest QB in NFL history, right? Surely, after last year’s beat down, Peyton will find a way to crack the Legion of Boom, right? Surely the improved Denver D will play better than last year’s banged up unit, right?

Denver 31, Seattle 9

Mark it down, take it to Vegas, etc.

Our girls keep using the word “awkward” incorrectly. For example, earlier this week we ran into their Uncle D at the grocery store and then him again with Aunt J walking their dog through the neighborhood the next day. Both times the girls kept shouting, “AWKWARD!” I had to explain that awkward means uncomfortable, weird, strange, not just an expression surprise. So it’s not awkward to run into people you want to see. I still don’t think they get it.

They may learn a better example of awkward if the Colts don’t sell 3,000-some tickets today and their Wild-Card Round playoff game with the Chiefs is blacked-out here tomorrow. That’s going to be seriously awkward, although as of this morning, it sounds like “Crazy” Jim Irsay will make sure the tickets are purchased before the deadline.

Which brings up a weird thing: why are three NFL playoff games, one in Green Bay, under threat of being blacked-out? Cincinnati is explainable, as they’ve had trouble selling tickets for years. The Colts are very strange, as they’ve sold out all but one game over the past decade. But Green Bay, with their 30-year waiting list for season tickets?

I don’t know if it’s about economic health, the price of tickets, the weather, the lure of staying home to watch, over-exposure of the NFL, too close to the holidays, or what. Because all those explanations were just as, if not more, valid in recent years. So I’m not going to try to figure out the answer. I’m just going to hope the tickets here get sold so I can sit in my warm basement and watch the game tomorrow. And avoid awkwardness.

AFC

Wild-Card Round
Indy over KC
Not offered with much confidence. I hoped, when it looked like the Chiefs-Colts matchup of two weeks ago would be a playoff preview, that the Chiefs would roll that day, giving the Colts some kind of revenge factor to go with home field. The Colts decided to flip the script, though, which has me worried. The Colts have hammered the 49ers, beat the Seahawks, and held off the Broncos. They’ve also been crushed by the Rams, Cardinals, and Bengals. The Chiefs beat the Eagles before they were the hottest team in football and then feasted on bad teams. One 11-win team is not like the other.
Close, but the Colts win again.

Cincinnati over San Diego
San Diego shouldn’t be here in the first place. And it’s looking like a blizzard will be blowing through Cincy during the game. They have no shot and the Bengals finally get a playoff win.

Divisional Round
New England over Cincinnati
I know it gets old, but it’s kind of incredible what the Pats have done this year. Look at them on paper and they’re not a very good team. Well, not 2-seed good. But where the Colts and Bengals tripped in key games in mid-season, the Pats just kept rolling. The Bengals, giddy after finally advancing past the first round, will keep it close for a half then fade.

Denver over Indianapolis
Luck-Manning Bowl II!!! Both teams have serious injury issues, Denver on defense and Indy everywhere. Peyton has never played well in a cold weather, outdoor playoff game. The Colts D just isn’t good enough to do what New England and Baltimore have done to Peyton over the years in January, though.

Conference Championship
Denver over New England
Brady-Manning Bowl 8,000!!! Ugly game and I have a feeling Denver’s running game wins it rather than Peyton’s arm. My boy Aqib Talib will have at least one pick but three personal fouls as well and likely either be ejected or explode in a ball of pure rage, hate, and iffy pharmaceuticals.

NFC
Wild Card Round
Philly over New Orleans
We all know the Saints can’t win on the road or outdoors, so this is a no-brainer, right? Wrong. I think this is more about the Eagles being red-hot right now that all the history attached to the Saints.

San Francisco over Green Bay
Won’t be the blow out of last year, but Green Bay isn’t good enough on defense to pull this out. Unless there’s a blizzard at Lambeau, which would change things…

Divisional Round
Seattle over San Francisco
Best current rivalry in football. Just don’t think the 49ers are healthy or locked-in enough to hang this year.

Philly over Carolina
The two hottest teams in the game. I have more faith in all the good karma around the Eagles than the good karma around the Panthers. Which is probably completely wrong.

Conference Championship
Seattle over Philly
Blow-out city, baby!

Super Bowl
Seattle over Denver
Cold weather, outside, Peyton in a big game against a brutal defense. Low-scoring, turnover-filled as Seattle grabs their first Super Bowl title.
Seahawks 23, Denver 15

I was thinking about the state of the NFL. On the one hand there is a dynamic group of young players, mostly quarterbacks, who have come into the league over the past three years and promise to be the collective face of the league for the next decade. With them has come the era of hyper-offense, where a variety of new schemes are designed to maximize the number of plays an offense runs and punish the defense by driving them to exhaustion rather than stuffing it down their throats or throwing the ball vertically every play.

On the other hand we’re in the third decade of the era of parity. The Colts are the textbook example of how fast fortunes can change in the league. They went from 10 wins to two back to 11 in a three-season span. Sure, they’re a fringe case because of the loss of Peyton Manning and addition of Andrew Luck. But still, in the NFL you’re never that far away from a playoff berth. What we lose in that, though, is having great teams that stay together over time. New England is, obviously, the dominant franchise of the past decade. But since their 18-1 season, have they really felt dominant? And has any team stepped up to replace them? The Giants beat the Pats in two Super Bowls since 2008, but also missed the playoffs three other times in that span.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that it’s fantastic that Luck. RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton are picking up as the old guard of premier quarterbacks is beginning its downhill slide. But who knows if we’ll be lucky enough to see any of those players, or others who aren’t stars yet, be consistent contenders for the Super Bowl the way Brady, Manning, and Favre were.

The era of parity makes picking winners tough. One magazine I flipped through had the entire NFC East with either eight or seven wins. No great teams, no awful teams, in their view. A couple other divisions could be just as mediocre. With the teams so tightly packed, injuries and luck become even bigger factors in who wins. But I shall persevere and make some predictions anyway.

NFC

East – New York

When in doubt, go with Tom Coughlin.

North – Green Bay

While I think Chicago will push them, Aaron Rodgers is still the most complete quarterback in the game and will be the difference.

South – New Orleans

They’ll play with chips on their shoulders after the mess of last year’s Bountygate and squeak by Atlanta.

West – San Francisco

You know what I said about rivalries above? The Niners – Seahawks thing could turn into an epic one for the next five-plus years if each team makes smart decisions with their rosters, keeps their stars healthy, and Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh hang around.

Wildcards: Seattle, Atlanta

Two very good teams to round out the post-season roster.

AFC

East – New England

Remains the easiest pick in the game for at least one more year.

North – Cincinnati

This seems to be a trendy pick. But the Ravens take a big step back and I’m not sold on Pittsburgh being deep and healthy enough to reclaim the division. So I’ll stick with the crowd.

South – Houston

The Colts take a step back this year and the Titans rule the division for one more year before Indy takes over again.

West – Denver

Assuming, of course, Peyton can survive.

Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Kansas City

Unlike the NFC, where the Wild Cards will be very good teams that just miss out on division titles, the AFC Wild Cards will be a couple of Mehs.

Playoffs

NFC

Seattle over New York
Atlanta over Green Bay
San Francisco over Atlanta
Seattle over New Orleans
San Francisco over Seattle

AFC

Cincinnati over Kansas City
Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over Cincinnati
New England over Houston
New England over Denver

Super Bowl

OK, let’s get this out in the open: I’m all over the Kaepernick bandwagon. Which means he’ll fall on his face this year, or NFL defenses will figure out how to stop the read-option and turn him into ordinary. But I love the dude’s game and think he’s going to change the NFL.

New England makes one, final Super Bowl appearance in the Brady-Belichick era¹ but just don’t have the firepower on either side of the ball to hang with the ‘Niners.

San Francisco 31
New England 20

Mark it down.

As a friend we were out to dinner with Saturday texted to his friends as the afternoon stretched into evening, “I’ve seen this movie before.”

Straight up, the Denver Broncos’ shock, double overtime loss to the Ravens was not Peyton’s fault. Sure, he threw a couple bad picks and once again looked ordinary after an other-worldly regular season. But, as was often the case when the Colts shit the bed in the playoffs, the blame lay primarily with other Broncos. His teammates that couldn’t tackle, couldn’t defend the pass, couldn’t contain Ray Rice, and most shockingly, couldn’t follow the most basic rule of late-game defense were the biggest contributors to the Broncos epic egg laying.

But Peyton will get the blame, and this is another argument against him in the Greatest QB of All Time debate.

Here’s the thing: even when his teams have won, Peyton has rarely been as good in the playoffs as in the regular season. Even when he won the Super Bowl MVP, his stats were middling and it felt more like an award that was bestowed for past excellence than earned on the field in Miami.

I think Peyton is the greatest quarterback in NFL history,¹ if you look, at what he’s done from September to December over his career. His struggles, and his teams’ inability to win more than a single Super Bowl, make that debate a much more difficult choice between him, Joe Montana, John Elway, and Tom Brady.

That was some great game, though. We went out to dinner with a large group and the restaurant had TVs that are normally switched off turned on. So the men in our group gathered on one end of the table, staring at the big screen above us. I may have created a small scene when Jacoby Jones hauled in Joe Flacco’s desperation heave late in the fourth quarter. In my defense A) it was an epic play, one we’ll never forget and B) I was far from the only person in the room screaming. I may have just screamed the loudest.

There was a strange mood in the restaurant. Some people were clearly cheering for Peyton and the Broncos. Some were just watching a great game. There were a few scattered folks who were either pulling for the Ravens or perhaps against Peyton. As the game went longer and longer, and Peyton threw the interception many of us thought was inevitable, there were plenty of loud, derisive comments like my friend’s I mentioned above.

But, man, what a game.

I didn’t get to see all of the Colin Kaepernick show, but I saw enough. Maybe other people have already said this and I’ve just missed it, but what he’s doing is awfully reminiscent of what Tom Brady did in 2001 after Drew Bledsoe got hurt. There’s no reason for him to be playing this well, but he is. And the Niners just keep winning. Who knows if he can continue this through two more games this season, let alone over a long career. But the 49ers are suddenly sexy again, and between Kaepernick. RGIII, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck, there is a tremendous infusion of new QB blood into the league.

Aaron Rogers is in the same place Peyton is. Genius in the regular season, but post-season ruined by his defense.

I’ve been fighting a brutal cold, so when Atlanta went up 20 on Seattle, I decided to close my eyes for a while. Fortunately I opened them in time to see the final 5-6 minutes of that game. That was something else, too, although it didn’t have the same, classic feel the Baltimore-Denver game had.

Then New England had to ruin a perfect weekend and destroy the Texans. Could they at least have let Houston hang around until the fourth quarter before commencing with the behind whooping?

Which leaves us with two pretty interesting games next week. The smart picks seem to be San Francisco and New England. But Kaepernick’s youth remains a concern. And no matter how solid and boring the Pats are, theres a part of me that fears picking against the Ravens. I’d be perfectly fine with two more instant classics, regardless of who wins.

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I just realized as the owner of a blog that dabbles in sports discussions, I have to get some NFL playoffs predictions posted before the action begins tomorrow.

Wildcard Round

Houston over Cincinnati. Against another opponent, I would be tempted to pick against the sagging Texans. But the Bengals don’t have the juice to pull the upset and I think Houston might get their act together this week.

Green Bay over Minnesota. Rogers and company are going to be pissed after losing to the Vikings in the final seconds of last Sunday’s game.

Indianapolis over Baltimore. Picking purely with my heart, here. I think the Colts have a chance. I don’t think it’s that good of a chance, but a chance nonetheless. I fear the Ravens will gouge the Colts’ D early and then the D will overwhelm Luck as he tries to lead another comeback. But I’m still taking the Colts. Because you never know.

Seattle over Washington. Seattle is getting healthy, RGIII is still on the mend, and I think the Seahawks’ D is perfectly suited to containing him. Plus, I’ve picked against them constantly this year and they keep surprising me. Might as well jump on the bandwagon and ruin it for them.

Divisional Round

New England over Houston. I can see Foster running all over the Pats’ D. But I think Brady wins a shootout.

Denver over Indianapolis. Indianapolis fans have a week-long migraine leading up to this one. In the end, it’s not close. CBS revels in this game, which sets up next week’s dream match up. The post-game handshake between Luck and Manning becomes the most photographed moment of 2013.

Seattle over Atlanta. I want to believe in the Falcons. I just can’t the way they closed out the season.

San Francisco over Green Bay. If the Pack had a defense, they’d have a shot here. But I think the ‘Niners defense gives Rogers fits all day.

Conference Championships

Denver over New England. Manning struggles but the Broncos’ defense makes life equally miserable for Brady. A tight, tense affair won on a late field goal.

San Francisco over Seattle. Another ugly, D-fest.

Super Bowl

I thought about this one for quite a while.¹ The ‘Niners have the better defense, but the Broncos aren’t slouches on that side of the ball. Denver clearly has the better offense, and by a bigger margin. I make my pick based on the size of those gaps.

Denver 22, San Francisco 13

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It isn’t often anymore that I stay up and watch an entire Sunday or Monday Night Football game. Last night was an exception. And it wasn’t just because the game between New England and Baltimore was tremendously important, with the loser taking on a second loss just three weeks into the season.

It wasn’t just because, early on, the replacement referees showed they would not be able to keep control of the game. That remained true to, and beyond, the final play of the night. As an unaffiliated watcher, I find the replacement refs to be excellent entertainment.

Those things mattered but what mattered most was watching Baltimore receiver Torrey Smith play. As many of you know, Smith’s younger brother died in a motorcycle accident early Sunday morning. After spending the wee hours with his family, Smith returned to the Ravens and suited up for the game. He caught six balls, two for touchdowns. He made a couple important grabs late to help set up the game-winning field goal.

Prime time games have a way of drawing these special moments. The most famous is Brett Favre’s performance in Oakland after his father’s death. It seems like there were quite a few when I was a kid, when, under the bright lights and with Howard Cosell narrating the action, and athlete would have a huge game under circumstances most people would crumble beneath.

I don’t know why we’re drawn to these games. We certainly make more of them that we should. Perhaps it’s because we can’t imagine functioning under the same pressures. I know 18 hours after my mother died I wasn’t capable of doing much other than cry. There’s no way I could have gone to a normal job and crunched numbers or sold widgets, let alone performed at the highest level as a professional athlete.

I suppose there’s some great message in there. We can rise above anything when we have the support of those around us. Or honoring those we love can push us to do great things. Or something, I don’t know.

I just know I had to watch Torrey Smith last night. And I’m glad that I did.

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It promises to be a strange year for NFL fans here in Indianapolis. Most Colts fans were able to deal with the wreckage of last season, knowing that Andrew Luck would be the reward. Based on early returns, Luck seems to be the real deal. But a good quarterback does not alone rebuild a crumbling franchise. The Colts still have lots of work to do to get back in the playoff mix, let alone become a Super Bowl contender again. This season, not last, is year one of the rebuiling process.

Making matters more complicated is Peyton Manning suiting up for the Denver Broncos. I contend that he is not a long-term solution for the Broncos. But, providing they can protect him and keep him on the field, I see no reason why he can’t be to the Broncos what Joe Montana was to the Chiefs during his two-year run in KC. I expect a lot of gnashing of teeth in Indy when the Broncos are in the playoff hunt in November and the Colts are beginning to think about the draft.

Anyway, on to my annual, ultra-scientific, deeply considered picks for the NFL season.

AFC

East: New England. I saw a headline for a column on Yahoo Sports the other day that said something about how the lack of a running game had kept the Patriots from becoming a true dynasty. So I guess it doesn’t matter if you go to five Super Bowls in a decade-plus. If you lose a couple, you can’t be called a dynasty. Stupid.

North: Baltimore. Most seem to think this is an easy pick. As much as I hate the Steelers, I hope it’s still an old fashioned slugathon to win this division.

South: Houston. For a decade the Colts were the easy pick here. How long will the Texans be the auto-pick?

West: San Diego. This seems like the most wide-open division in football. I’m not sure Peyton will click early or be healthy late, don’t get the Chiefs hype, so ride the Phillip Rivers wagon again this year.

Wild Cards: Pittsburgh, Denver.

NFC

East: New York. Despite Wednesday’s game, I’m not ready to say the Cowboys are the better team over 16 games.

North: Green Bay. Still the best in the wide-open regular season.

South: Saints. Despite all the drama, still the best team in the division with the added bonus of playing with a massive chip on their shoulders.

West: 49ers. Will challenge Green Bay for best record.

Wild Cards: Chicago, Dallas.

Playoffs

Wildcard
Steelers over Chargers
Texans over Broncos
Bears over Cowboys
Giants over Saints

Divisional Round
Patriots over Texans
Ravens over Steelers
49ers over Giants
Bears over Packers

Conference Championships
Ravens over Patriots
Bears over 49ers

Super Bowl
Ravens 9, Bears 6. Ugliest Super Bowl ever. Worried about more bad press, after a year of focus on concussions and brain trauma, Roger Goodell unilaterally eliminates all offensive pass interference and holding penalties for the 2013 season, saying that it is just too hard to score.

Mark it down.

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