NBA Preview

The NBA is back! More importantly, so is Tyrese Haliburton. After a gap year of sorts, the Pacers should be in the mix of a suddenly super-deep and formidable Eastern Conference.

I’ve listened to approximately one million hours of NBA podcasts over the summer. I should share some of that knowledge with my readers. Or at least type it up into a blog post so I can pretend I am educating someone else and that time wasn’t wasted.

Pacers

It has been fascinating listening to national writers and analysts attempt to figure out the Pacers. Haliburton is, of course, coming back from a torn achilles. Everyone saw Jason Tatum return from the same injury in less than a year last spring, appear to be in pretty good shape, then suddenly not play in game seven of Boston’s opening round loss to Philadelphia. That has spooked a lot of people about Hali’s return.

There will be some bumps in the road. Hali will take a few nights off here-and-there. But he is also 16 months out from his injury, and should be better healed than Tatum was when he returned.

Even the people that are bullish on the Pacers think they will start slow. That’s not an unreasonable expectation. The NBA finalists of two years ago were mediocre-to-bad the first two months of the season before getting their shit together when the New Year arrived and streaking from there.

Health was a big part of that. The Pacers already have a couple players dinged up who will miss tonight’s opener.1 Hali, as mentioned, will have some nights where he is not 100% and needs rest. Plus they are integrating Ivica Zubac into the mix. That seemed to work in the preseason, but the regular season is a different animal. I can’t wait to see how Rick Carlisle integrates Zu and how he forms partnerships with Hali and Pascal Siakam.

All those national analysts want to love the Pacers. Their Finals run was so fun, and came via a joyful, democratic style of basketball. But the Eastern Conference is so freaking deep that there is no room for error. If it takes the Pacers a month or six weeks to get fully integrated, they could already find themselves in a hole that takes away any chance for home court in the playoffs.

The good news is that everyone gets injured in the NBA, so every team will have to overcome some kind of major personnel loss, whether it is for three weeks because of an ill timed hamstring tweak or longer because of something more serious.

Two Ringer analysts picked the Pacers to make the Finals, one even had them beating Oklahoma City. Most others have them in the top six. A couple slid them down in the play-in, mostly because of that fear of a slow start. I’m sure some people around here are going to get offended that the Pacers aren’t automatically assumed to be the Eastern Conference favorites - don’t forget that the Knicks could only win a title when the Pacers weren’t around to beat them - without realizing how much more difficult the league is this year, even compared to two years ago.

I believe the Pacers will win 46-47 games and slot somewhere in the 3-6 spots in the playoff bracket. Again, more a measure of the conference than the team. I can see them winning one series, regardless of who they play. Beyond that, it is impossible to pick since we have no idea who will be healthy in April and May. I doubt a return to the Finals is in the cards. But with this team, you never know.

Tanking Be Gone! (Kind Of)

The East is tougher not just because of all the personnel moves that brought talent into the conference. There are also new rules designed to reduce tanking. In theory that means there won’t be a third of the league actively trying NOT to win games. Plus this year’s draft is not nearly as deep as last year’s, reducing the benefit of mailing in half the season. Teams at the bottom of the standings will be fighting to win games to move into the magic zone where you get the best draft odds.

There will still be tanking, it will just be different. I don’t love the new rules - I think there are better ways to prevent tanking - but this new system should bring about more competitive games, especially in the final quarter of the regular season.

Storylines

If you have not listened to weeks-worth of NBA podcasts like me, here are some bullet points on what to watch for, beyond the Pacers, this season.

  • The Sixers. Perhaps THE story in the NBA this season. Can they combine all their ridiculous, top-level talent into a cohesive squad? Can Joel Embiid stay on the court, and will he pout if he doesn’t get the ball enough? Can LeBron James stay on the court, and will he get passive aggressive online if things get difficult? Will Jaylen Brown pout and post weird videos if he doesn’t get the ball enough? Is there enough depth to weather the inevitable stretches both Embiid and James will miss? A year-long soap opera that could be mind-blowingly fun and maddening in equal measures. They could win the title or completely fall apart by February. As Kevin Garnett once said, anything is possible.
  • Can the Knicks repeat now that half a century of chasing one title is gone? They are already facing financial headaches and the team cut off extension negotiations with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart before the season began. Do all the accolades and outside pressures that come with winning one championship prevent them from winning two?
  • Is Toronto secretly the best team in the East?
  • Could Orlando, Detroit, or Cleveland make trades in mid-season to put them over the top?
  • Can anyone slow down OKC and San Antonio in the West?
  • Does Denver have one more run in them, or will Nikola Jokić be doomed to win just one title?
  • Does Fred VanVleet’s return launch Houston into title contender status, or will Kevin Durant’s body (or burner phones) betray him and doom the team?
  • Who wins the Rookie of the Year award? There are five serious contenders in very different circumstances.
  • How sad is the end of the Warriors run going to be? Most people aren’t even picking Golden State to make the playoffs. Steph already has an ankle injury. The greatest team of the 21st Century is fading away with the meekest of whimpers.
  • Can the Lakers playing mostly white guys work?
  • Who wins the MVP? Shai for the third-straight year? Jokić reasserts himself and wins his fourth? Giannis goes off in Miami and wins his third? Luca Dončić finally gets his first? What if the Pacers grab the top seed in the East and Haliburton becomes the favorite? Oh, and there’s that Wemby kid in San Antonio who might be ready to dominate for a decade.

Predictions

I’m not going to predict all the playoffs teams, or even seeds. Instead I’m going to pick the final four in each conference.

Eastern Conference

Detroit Boston

I want to throw the Pacers in, but I need to see them play for a couple months to see how it all works. Detroit will trade for Kyrie Irving in January and that will unlock their offense. Boston will knock off the defending champs in a brutal, seven-game conference semifinals series, sapping them of the strength needed to matchup with the Pistons.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City San Antonio

This is boring because baring catastrophic injuries to either team, the Thunder and Spurs are far better than anyone else in the West.

I see the Thunder playing with an extra level of commitment and intensity after last year. I bet they view the Spurs beating them as a fluke. They also understand, however, that the Spurs are on the big-time come-up and if they don’t win another title this season, their window may be closed. Oh, and they are fully healthy and, somehow, perhaps deeper than their title team of two years ago.

Thunder over Pistons in five.

Unless it’s the Spurs over the Celtics.

Or Pacers over the Rockets.

Or Raptors over Nuggets.

  1. A wise man once said, “We are all Day-to-Day.” ↩︎