I’m still battling a cold. It’s one of those shitty ones that isn’t crazy bad during the day, more annoying than debilitating. But at night between the coughing and sneezing and body aches manages to keep me from sleeping. Each of the last two nights I’ve given up and gone into M’s room to toss and turn so I don’t keep S awake with my nonsense. She did the same thing last week when she had the same cold. Remind me to wash M’s sheets before her next visit home so she doesn’t have to sleep in her parents’ dried snot.
Jayhawk Talk
Another week, another road loss. And another one that KU had every opportunity to win. Other than Johnny Furphy, they shot poorly from outside. They missed some layups and blew some opportunities on the break. They had some huge turnovers in important spots. Yet they scored 75 points on 45% shooting on the road against a top five defense, so I’m not sure you can criticize the offense too much.
Once again a team shot out of their minds against the Kansas defense. Iowa State hit their most 3 pointers in a Big 12 game in five years. Coincidentally it was the most 3 pointers KU has given up in a conference game in five years.
Is that flukey/unsustainable or a flaw in the system? After the game Bill Self said they wanted to sag off certain shooters, specifically Tre King who had only hit three 3s all year. Naturally he went 4–7.
I put this loss directly on Self, and not just because of his defensive choices. He decided to go for a 2-for–1 opportunity late in the first half when KU led by one. KU’s offense had been struggling so I don’t know why you decide to suddenly speed things up to force a shot, just so you can maybe get two shots. Dajuan Harris went entirely too fast, turned the ball over, which became a run-out for Iowa State and resulted in a flagrant foul on Parker Braun after a review. For some reason Self decided to argue the point and got hit with a technical. Fortunately ISU only hit 2–4 free throws, but then hit a 3 to end the half and went into the locker room up four. It felt like that 3 opened up the floodgates for the Cyclones in the second half, when they countered every KU run with a big 3. The 3 wasn’t Self’s fault, but getting the T in that moment was dumb (mostly because the flagrant foul call was 100% correct) and he was lucky the deficit wasn’t six. Coaches preach knowing time and score to their players. It felt like Self needed to look at the scoreboard before he got that T.
While the details kind of hid it, I think this game clearly showed how it is the defensive side that is holding the Jayhawks back. Self’s system has always been to take away drives rather than 3s. He’s had to lean on that more this year partially because of Hunter Dickinson’s immobility inside. I also think KU’s three best defenders – Kevin McCullar, Dajuan Harris, and KJ Adams – all play solid D, but they don’t make the other team feel them. Watch KU’s defense then watch a Houston game and you’ll see a dramatic difference. KU gets to spots and tries to force passes. All five Houston players get in their man’s jersey and don’t stop until there’s a whistle. It is a grinding, exhausting experience to play against Houston. Against KU I think teams always know if they move the ball enough, there will be a lapse that leads to an open shot. Because of that, they play with confidence rather than fear.
I think some of that is related to KU’s short bench. The five starters can’t play at 100% intensity on defense because they rarely come out of the game and need to save something for the other end.
With Furphy’s rapid ascension into the team’s best shooter, that fixes some of the offensive issues this team has. Elmarko Jackson, Nic Timberlake, and Braun might better serve the team by figuring out how to guard people than score the ball. Jackson specifically had a rough time Saturday, getting lost on that ISU 3 right before halftime then getting beat and fouling his man on a backdoor cut when KU was making a run late.
Seven games into the conference season the Jayhawks sit at 4–3. I don’t think it’s time to panic. I do think, though, that the team is going to regret not taking advantage of this part of the schedule. After tonight’s game against Oklahoma State, there are no easy ones left. KU might play significantly better in the back half of the schedule and still drop 3–4 games.
BTW, I forgot how much I hate unbalanced schedules. I know this is a weird year where the conference transitioned from 10 teams to 14 before going to 16 next year. It does not feel right that KU and Iowa State won’t play again in Lawrence.
NFL Conference Championship Games
I didn’t get to see much of the Chiefs-Ravens game, but I guess those of us who doubted the Chiefs should have known better. A dominant defensive performance while the offense did just enough to win on the road. I should have known that a team that lost to the Colts on their home field wasn’t good enough to win the AFC championship game on the same field.
I watched almost all of the Lions-Niners game, which was a wild, exhilarating experience. A huge first run by the Lions put them on the verge of their first ever Super Bowl, only to end in an epic collapse.
In the moment I was pretty critical of Dan Campbell’s decisions to go for it on fourth down in the second half. But knowing that was their MO all year and their kicker’s numbers fall in the shaky zone where I’m not sure you totally trust him in the playoffs, I’m more comfortable with them after the fact.
Besides, the Lions dropped passes and flukey-as-hell Brandon Aiyuk reception that bounced off the Lions’ defender’s face mask were bigger factors in the loss.
The anti-analytics folks love to make those choices THE factors when a team loses a winnable game. In this case you can’t bitch about Campbell’s calls without acknowledging the Niners benefited from one of the craziest plays in NFL playoff history, and Lions receivers dropped three balls that were in their hands and would have extended drives. Change one or two of those plays and it doesn’t matter whether the Lions still go for it and fail or miss field goals.
I’m not all-in on analytics. I think they need to be applied within the context of each game rather than be viewed as definitive guides. And I will generally a trust a coach like Campbell, who has a clear philosophy on their use and is consistent in their application.
Sucks for the Lions, though. They are young and can get better, but you just never know how long these windows will be open.
Which, flipping this back to the first game, makes Baltimore’s loss even worse. They had home field, a dominant defense, an offense that was as good as it has been in the Lamar Jackson era and couldn’t get it done. All in a year when the Chiefs were, relatively speaking, down. When Joe Burrow was injured. You expect the Chiefs to be back in the mix for home field next year, Burrow to be healthy, maybe the Bills will finally plug their holes, and Houston has a ton of money to build around CJ Stroud with. This might have been the Ravens best chance at a Super Bowl in the Jackson era.
Early thoughts on the Super Bowl? They’ve made it this far so I can’t doubt the Chiefs.
I guess anyone who watched football on Fox this year has to have an opinion about the seeming inevitable bumping of Greg Olsen from the #1 analyst spot for Tom Brady next season.
I’m in line with main-line opinion that Olsen is terrific and it’s a real bummer that he will lose his spot because Fox owes Brady so much money. Unlike some folks, I still enjoy Tony Romo, although he can be a little much. I described Olsen as similar to Romo except where Romo sometimes comes off as overly impressed with himself or excited to show how smart he is, Olsen seems excited to share his knowledge. Romo can grate because he is a lot to deal with. Olsen is a joy to listen to break down the games.
Maybe Tom Brady is going to be awesome. There is some evidence that if he relaxes and is willing to be critical, he could be a good addition. It’s just a bummer that Olsen was basically a place holder and will no longer get to do the biggest games. Hopefully he lands in a spot where we get to hear him each week.