My NFL predictions are always half-assed. Let’s see if I can make them even more half-assed (quarter-assed?) by typing them up on a morning when a chirping smoke alarm woke me up at 3:30, it took me an hour to fall back to sleep after finding/quieting the proper alarm, then I had to be up less than an hour later to get L to practice…
I never do any real research for these posts, although this year I’ve listened to a few preview pods. I don’t know that they gave me any great insights because there were some wildly varying opinions of certain teams. One guys loves the Cowboys and hates the Bengals. His cohost feels exactly the opposite. How is this supposed to help me? We’ll see how much that limited amount of information has screwed up my perspective.
AFC East
The first of several divisions that are tough to pick. Most folks think the Jets are the most talented across the roster, and their success comes down to whether you trust Aaron Rodgers to 1) be healthy and 2) to somehow regain his 2021 form at age 40 coming off an achilles injury. Buffalo shed a ton of talent to get out of salary cap hell, but still have Josh Allen. Miami? Their shit only worked against bad teams last year. I have no faith in Rodgers, but the Jets won seven games with below-replacement level quarterbacks last year. If Rodgers can play most of the season, he doesn’t have to be an MVP for the Jets to win the division. New York Jets
AFC North
Is Joe Burrow healthy and/or will the Bengals’ receivers’ contract situations be distractions? The Steelers and Browns will suck on offense, and be fantastic on the other side of the ball. That makes it the Baltimore Ravens by default, even though they lost a few very important players. Always trust Lamar. Until January…
AFC South
There is a lot of worry here in Indy because Anthony Richardson looked so erratic in the preseason. I would remind people he played just parts of four games as a rookie, and came into the league as a project. The best hope is that he stays healthy this year, by the end of the season we are seeing progress/growth, and maybe the Colts can sneak into a Wild Card spot. Jacksonville is a mess, although if Treor Lawrence can get his shit together they can make a Wild Card run. Tennessee is terrible. The Houston Texans are an easy pick here, even if CJ Stroud doesn’t get an ounce better than he was as a rookie. The team is young, talented, and loaded.
AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs until Patrick Mahomes’ arm falls off. And don’t give me this “The Broncos are interesting” talk I’m hearing. They still stink. The Raiders are horrible. Odds favor Jim Harbaugh turning the Chargers around, but not enough to challenge the Chiefs.
Wild Cards
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
NFC East
This was long the league’s glamor division, filled with three east coast teams plus Dallas. You could generally count on at least three of the teams being excellent. This year? Is even one of them very good? The Eagles will either be super focused and scary good, or be overwhelmed by all their internal drama and struggle to win eight games. Dallas could go either way, too, and we know if they are great from September to December, then they will find a new, humiliating way to lose in the playoffs. Washington and New York are at different parts of the rebuild curve, but both at the bottom. I’ll go with Dallas simply because they won 12 games last year and Dak Prescott is playing for his next contract.
NFC North
Everyone loves Detroit now, which is a weird thing to type. The Packers are a half-step behind them. Chicago could be sneaky good, although it feels early for Caleb Williams to turn them into a winner. The Vikings will host several games against playoff teams. Detroit did it longer than Green Bay last year, so I go with the Lions.
NFC South
This division is a good argument for regulation. Couldn’t we drop New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, bring up Georgia, Oregon, and Ohio State and get more competitive games? I know, I know, that is a truly dumb thing to say. It might actually work this year, though. Atlanta by default.
NFC West
I, like many, want to pick against The 49ers here. They have the Super Bowl loser hangover to contend with. The summer was filled with contract drama. Christian McCaffrey is already hurt. Even then, they remain one of the deepest teams in the league. LA has a lot of holes but Sean McVay is a true coaching witch. A lot of folks think Seattle could be sneaky good. I’m not on the bandwagon. Arizona will be better, but still bring up the rear. They may only win 9–10 games this year, but I still like San Francisco.
Wild Cards
Green Bay
Los Angeles
Philadelphia
I was going to pick all the playoff games, too, but that is too much for my brain today. Instead I’ll jump straight to the Super Bowl. Kansas City 30, Detroit 24. In triple overtime. Detroit misses four field goals in OT and Mahomes finally throws a 75 yard TD on the first play of the third extra period.