The new NBA season kicked off last night and the Pacers begin play tonight.
When we last saw them, the Pacers were making a surprise, fun-as-hell run to the Eastern Conference finals. They could have easily won three of the first four games against the eventual champion Celtics, but were instead swept aside. Their run was fueled as much by injuries to key players on Milwaukee and New York as by the play of the Pacers themselves. Still, they had a legit shot at the NBA Finals.
So, healthy Tyrese Haliburton (hopefully), Paskal Siakam has been through a training camp with the team, the role players have another year of experience. The Pacers should be better, and thus, challengers to the Celtics this year, right?
Not so fast. The Haliburton-Siakam combo will likely become one of the best two-man options in the league. And Hali makes everyone around him better. On the offensive end.
The Pacers didn’t do a thing to improve their defense woes in the offseason. I guess they’re hoping a little more attention from the starters and effort from the bench players will help on that end of the court? Or that last year’s first round pick Jarace Walker will be ready to step in and guard just about any spot on the court.
Only problem with that is the Pacers veterans have all showed themselves to be mediocre and indifferent, at best, defenders. Hali, as much fun as he is on offense, is a truly terrible defender. It’s almost like he’s trying to be bad he is so woeful on that end of the court. Worse, Walker continues to struggle to translate the defensive stopper game he showed in college to the pro level. To start the season, at least, he seems buried deep on the Pacers bench rather than stepping in as a starter or even top guy off the bench.
Another issue is that the Pacers can’t be much better on offense than they were last year. More likely is that they are still very good, but regress just a hair. Myles Turner seems to have peaked a couple years ago. If his game slips another notch this year, that could be a killer. Outside of Hali and Siakam, the roster is filled with guys who will go off one night, then struggle the next. The beauty of their offense last year was that there weren’t too many nights when more than a couple players were struggling. Can they match that effectiveness this year and always count on 3–4 guys to be locked in on the offensive end?
There have also been some tweaks to NBA rules interpretations that are designed to slow down the breakneck offenses that have dominated the league in recent years. That’s not good for Indiana.
Those are all Pacers issues for the coming season. Outweighing them is the fact that the top of the Eastern Conference will likely be better than last year. The Celtics are the rare defending champ on an absolute mission to destroy everyone in their path. New York is better. Philadelphia is better on paper, although the health of Joel Embiid and Paul George will always be in question. If Milwaukee can keep their starting five healthy they will be right there with the Celtics and Knicks. Orlando is young, getting better, and made a great free agent signing over the summer. Cleveland had horrible injury luck last year. If they avoid that and make a smart trade, they should be in the mix for a top four seed. Then you never know what kind of devil magic Miami will come up with.
The Pacers could be exactly as good as they were last year and win fewer games because the East is tougher. Any fall off will be more pronounced because of that strength of competition.
That might seem pessimistic. It’s not meant to me. The Pacers will still be one of the most fun teams to watch, which goes a long way in the NBA. They are firmly in that group of teams in the East that could finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th. The difference between those positions should be razor thin, a game or two separating multiple playoff slots. And as home court means less in the NBA than it once did, as long as you avoid the play-in games, you’re in good shape.
I think there is a lot of Midwestern, provincial exuberance about this team that is a little over-the-top. Just because the Pacers made the conference finals last year doesn’t mean they are the second-best team in the East entering this season. Even more than last year, they are going to have to earn whatever playoff success they get this season.