Kerry: 299 (MN, WI, MI, OH, , NH, FL)
Bush: 239 (IA, NM, CO, WV)
Kerry wins popular vote by a margin between 500,000 and 1,000,000 votes
Kerry wins Florida easily and early; Ohio is this year’s problem child. Fortunately, Kerry wraps things up without Ohio so the issues there don’t drag the final result out for six weeks.

I wrote this late last night so it may not match what a few of you have seen via e-mail the past couple days. The tone I’m detecting on TV, radio, and the Internet along with a few well placed sources indicates that turnout is going to be massive across the country, which bodes well for Kerry. That means the youth vote, which he gets close to 60% of, is showing up. That means old people in Miami, which are strongly Democratic, are getting out and voting. That means states that have had a large increase in registered voters over the past four years are seeing those new voters make it to the polls. That means the undecideds are breaking one way or the other. The bigger the turnout, the more legitimate the final result. My personal gut feeling tells me the larger the turnout, the larger the margin of victory for whoever wins. Regardless of who wins, I think a nice cushion is good for the country. It gives the winner as much of a mandate as you can hope for in this era, and cuts the legal challenges to a minimum after the election. But I could be wrong.

Senate: Republicans 51, Democrats 48, 1 Independent
House: Republicans retain control by a margin of 5-10 seats.
And for the big Indiana race: Daniels (R) beats Kernan (D) for the governor’s seat by a margin of 51%-45%.